Calculations of OPS, EPS and BJP

While AIADMK has not declared its candidate in the Erode East constituency by-election, both Edappadi K Palanisamy and O Paneerselvam have announced their candidates on the same day.What are the calculations behind Edappadi Palaniswami's action decision when both of them have been delaying for so many days for BJP's decision?

Edappadi Palaniswami would not have shown interest if by-elections had been held in the Delta and Southern districts without Erode East. Now EdappadiPalanisami must be thinking how O Paneerselvam is thinking of withdrawing from this. Now he has a by-election in a strong area. In AIADMK's faction rivalry he is actively on the field to show that he has the support of the volunteers. His stand is that it does not matter if there is no double leaf symbol. Edappadi Palaniswami's calculation is not to win, but to prove that he is the face of AIADMK and he has fielded a strong candidate accordingly.

What will BJP do in this situation? Stand aside and have fun without supporting anyone; support one of the two; BJP should announce that it would contest. Whoever has the double leaf symbol should be supported. BJP should have done any one of these four. There is a problem with the double leaf symbol. If someone is given the double leaf symbol it will affect the outcome of the case in the Supreme Court. So it is more likely that the two sides will be told to contest on an independent symbol.

National Democratic Progressive Alliance is mentioned in the banner placed in the office set up by AIADMK's EdappadiPalaniswami team in the Erode East by-election. They have named the National Democratic Progressive Alliance instead of the National Democratic Alliance for the future. And Modi's picture is nowhere on the banner.

If the BJP stands in this by-election, Edappadi Palaniswami will not be able to use the name National Democratic Alliance for his party's candidate. Because it is a BJP-led alliance. That is why he has added a word to the alliance name. EPS is clear that it should not directly antagonize the BJP.

Soon the AIADMK conflict problem will be over and we will know who the party will be with. So, EdappadiPalaniswami is playing a game alone in this by-election. Now Edappadi Palaniswami's "Sethi" is telling BJP that ``My fight is with OPS, you don't need to interfere''.

As far as the BJP is concerned, even if it wants to support Edappadi, Annamalai can only support it if the top says so. But at the top there is a good admiration for OPS. If we decide to support Edappadi for Kongu zone, we need OPS support in southern districts, delta districts. The BJP leadership thinks that Edappadi has more strength in this by-election and why should they antagonize OPS after supporting him.

So, it seems that BJP is thinking that it should not show its stand by supporting anyone in this by-election and them both settle their differences. Perhaps if BJP announces its candidate, OPS will withdraw its candidate. But the question has arisen whether EPS will do.

Also the question remains that if the BJP does not contest and supports the EPS candidate, what will be the outcome of the OPS? At the same time, the question has arisen as to what will be the outcome of the EPS side if the BJP supports the OPS side and what will be the status of the AIADMK-BJP alliance if the Supreme Court favors the EPS side. It is not known what is going to happen in Tamilnadu political cycle.
Let's wait a couple of days!